XRP Price Prediction: Will It Reach $2 Amid Technical Squeeze and BRICS Tailwinds?

#XRP

• Technical Coil: XRP is trading near the lower Bollinger Band ($1.8646) with key resistance at the 20-day MA ($2.0827). A breakout above this level is critical for a bullish move toward $2.
• Fundamental Catalyst: India's BRICS CBDC interoperability proposal is a significant long-term bullish driver for XRP's cross-border payment utility, providing fundamental support.
• Sentiment Crosscurrent: Market sentiment is mixed, torn between caution from bearish on-chain patterns and optimism from real-world adoption narratives. The resolution of the current technical wedge will likely dictate short-term direction.

XRP Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: XRP/USDT

As of January 21, 2026, XRP is trading at 1.9109 USDT, positioned below its 20-day moving average of 2.0827. This suggests a short-term bearish pressure. The MACD indicator shows a positive histogram value of 0.1048, indicating a potential for bullish momentum to build, though the signal line remains in negative territory. The price is currently trading NEAR the lower Bollinger Band at 1.8646, which often acts as a support level. A bounce from this zone could see the price retest the middle band at 2.0827.

"The convergence near the lower Bollinger Band, coupled with a positive MACD histogram, hints at a possible consolidation or reversal attempt," says BTCC financial analyst Michael. "The immediate hurdle is the 20-day MA, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band. A sustained break above 2.0827 is crucial for any bullish continuation towards the upper band at 2.3009."

Market Sentiment & Catalysts

Recent headlines present a mixed but cautiously optimistic backdrop for XRP. On-chain analysis suggesting a structure similar to 2022 raises concerns about rally sustainability, potentially capping upside enthusiasm. However, significant macro developments offer counterbalancing support. India's proposal for BRICS CBDC interoperability is a long-term bullish catalyst for XRP, given its utility in cross-border settlements. Furthermore, the asset retesting a key technical zone aligns with the on-chart analysis, making a decisive breakout a focal point for traders.

"The news Flow underscores a battle between technical caution and fundamental promise," notes BTCC's Michael. "The bearish on-chain analogy is a watch-out, but the BRICS CBDC narrative is a powerful, real-world use case driver. Sentiment is leaning neutral-to-bullish, contingent on XRP breaking free from its current technical wedge pattern."

Factors Influencing XRP’s Price

XRP's On-Chain Structure Mirrors 2022 Pattern, Threatening Rally Momentum

XRP faces a critical juncture as its on-chain metrics replicate a bearish configuration last observed in early 2022. Glassnode data reveals short-term holders are accumulating below the realized price of the 6-12 month cohort—a historical precursor to extended sideways movement.

The inversion creates psychological pressure on underwater investors, with each rally toward their breakeven points potentially triggering sell-offs. Market structure now suggests overhead resistance may paralyze upward momentum for months, mirroring the stagnant period that followed the 2022 signal.

Exchange reserves hitting eight-year lows present a double-edged sword: while suggesting supply tightening, the last similar occurrence preceded months of choppy price action. The market watches whether leveraged positions will amplify the next decisive move.

India Proposes BRICS CBDC Interoperability to Streamline Cross-Border Payments

India is spearheading a proposal to link central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) across BRICS nations, aiming to revolutionize cross-border trade and tourism payments. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced the initiative on January 19, with plans to formalize the framework during India's upcoming BRICS chairmanship.

The move builds on earlier commitments to enhance payment system interoperability among BRICS members. If implemented, the CBDC network could slash transaction costs and settlement times—addressing longstanding inefficiencies in traditional correspondent banking.

While Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa have all launched CBDC pilots, none have achieved mass retail adoption. India's digital rupee, introduced in December 2022, remains the most advanced among emerging economies. Market observers note the proposal could pressure private cryptocurrencies like XRP and stablecoins that currently dominate cross-border flows.

XRP Retests Key Technical Zone as Traders Watch for Wedge Breakout

XRP is retesting a critical resistance level near $2.02 after forming a falling wedge pattern—a technical structure often preceding trend reversals. The token's ability to hold this level as support will determine its near-term trajectory.

Trading volume remains robust at $4.12 billion despite a 1.33% dip, with market capitalization holding above $122 billion. Analysts note the wedge's upper boundary now acts as a pivot point: a confirmed breakout could signal bullish momentum.

Market participants are comparing this setup to historical wedge resolutions, where breaks above converging trendlines frequently precede rallies. The current retest mirrors December 2025's price action when XRP surged 28% post-breakout.

Will XRP Price Hit 2?

Based on the current technical setup and market catalysts, reaching the $2 level is a plausible near-term target, but it is contingent on a key technical breakout.

As of January 21, 2026, XRP's price at $1.91 is just 4.7% away from the $2.00 psychological barrier. The primary technical resistance is the confluence of the 20-day Moving Average and the middle Bollinger Band at approximately $2.0827. A daily close above this level would signal a shift in short-term momentum and open a path toward $2.00 and potentially the upper Bollinger Band near $2.30.

The supportive fundamental news regarding BRICS CBDC development provides a positive narrative backdrop that could fuel buying interest if the technical breakout occurs.

Key Levels to Watch:

"The path to $2 is clear but gated," explains BTCC financial analyst Michael. "The price is coiled between support and a defined resistance zone. A breakout above $2.0827 would be the most convincing signal that a test of $2 is imminent. Until then, the market is in a waiting game, balancing bullish macro news against cautious on-chain signals."